Wheat: Australia's market share in Indonesia in danger

At their most important recipient country Indonesia, Australia's wheat exporters lose market share to the competition from the Black Sea. Indonesia is the world's second largest importer of wheat, and Russia, the Ukraine and Romania will benefit from large crops and lower freight rates.
Australia led from$ 1.19 billion in 2014/15 wheat after Indonesia in the value of A. Around 60% of the Australian wheat harvest is in the neighbouring country, which has benefited from the proximity and good qualities. Russia and the Ukraine, which together produce three times as much wheat as Australia, increasingly aggressive vermarken their grain. Lower Produktionslosten are your advantage, Australia's rail has come in the year.
Due to high production costs, Australia has lost market share in the Middle East already, now threatens them such a loss in the neighborhood. Meanwhile, it is cheaper to transport a ton of wheat from Odessa to Indonesia as from Swan Hill to Geelong. The 370 km long railway in the State of Victoria will cost just as much as the 11,500 km by sea from a black sea port to Jakarta even though the sea route from only 3,000 kilometers is Indonesia the Australian grain regions after.
Black Sea wheat costs Indonesia currently carriage paid $210Tonne and is therefore $30 per ton cheaper than Australian offers. The difference is partly due to a 13% increase wheat harvest in Russia and the Ukraine; She is estimated to be together 84 million tons.
After Russia has lifted an export ban on wheat, the shipments were resumed from there; whatever the tensions with the Ukraine. Australian analysts estimate that wheat production in Russia, the Ukraine and Kazakhstan more than before is doubling up until the year 2019 to 200 million tons. At the same time, the freight advantage of Australia falls against the backdrop of falling sea freight as well as an infrastructure for the Hinterlandtransport updated by international investors and the port facilities.
So far, Indonesia has imported less than 5% of its wheat from the Black Sea region; There were mostly quality reasons, which prevented the buyer from more imports. With larger price advantages are the Millers to shake but Australian wheat with Russian, so the forecast.

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