Wheat continues to recover

At the start of the new trading week, wheat prices continued to strengthen on Euronext/Matif. The most traded March contract increased by 3.00 euros to 231.75 euros/t and the subsequent contracts also went noticeably north. On the CBoT, contracts increased by double digits from March 24 onwards. The most traded March contract here rose by 17.75 US cents to 620.50 US cents/bu, which corresponds to a converted rate of 210.46 euros/t. In Germany there were only a few sales on the markets at the start of the week. The somewhat firmer prices for grain could increase the willingness of agriculture to sell. Many participants do not expect endless upward price potential, as cheaper goods from Eastern Europe in particular are increasingly coming to Germany. On the other hand, many collectors and mills have already closed their books for this year. The Australian Department of Agriculture recently updated its forecast for the Australian harvest and now expects 25.5 million tonnes, which increases the previous estimate from September, but is still a good 4 percent short of the ten-year average. However, export inspections released yesterday did not support the market.Compared to the previous week, slightly more than a third less quantity was loaded and the previous year's figures are significantly lower. On the other hand, the USDA was able to announce a private export sale of 440,000 tons to a Chinese buyer. There were also new figures for wheat cultivation in Canada yesterday. The statistics authority assumes production in 2023/24 of 31.95 million tons. This means that the previous forecast of 29.83 million tons was increased significantly, but the previous year's figure of 34.33 million was still clearly missed. If you look at the current positioning of institutional investors on the CBoT, you can see that they expect prices to fall in the medium term; the majority of the group is short at a high level.

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