Wheat deficit: memories of 2007/08

Since the end of June, the wheat prices on the Paris Matif have increased by 20% (from 178 to 211 € / to). This is due to fears that the supply situation is worsening around the world. The world's final stocks will drop to a 5-year low, as the EU's four largest wheat producers: France, Germany, the UK and Poland are steadily revising crop estimates.
There are memories of the 2007/08 season when grain prices triggered a food crisis. However, analysts say that high inventories and other fruits can compensate for part of the deficit.
However, higher wheat prices could drive inflation, according to the chief economist of the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Overall, stocks will be decimated after the big harvest in 2017.
Since May, the highest temperatures in Germany since 1881 dried out the fields and the harvest will be 25% smaller here, according to the DBV. Actually, Germany is Europe's second largest wheat exporter, but this year it might have to import more wheat than it would export.
In France, the damage is not so great, but the harvest has ended extremely early because of the heat. France will therefore be able to reap the greatest benefits from the crisis in its neighboring countries and perhaps even replace Russia as the world's leading wheat exporter.

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