Wheat: drought in Argentina - rain in Australia

On the last trading day of last week, wheat gained on Euronext/Matif and closed the week with a daily profit of 1.75 euros/t and a closing price of 240.00 euros/t. This meant that the front month was able to trade somewhat more firmly in the past week. On Friday of the previous week there was still a price of 237.25 euros/t on the display board and the future contracts in Paris also show green signs for the whole of October so far. The situation on the cash markets remained manageable at the end of the week, but the prices for bread and feed wheat were somewhat firmer here too. There is currently uncertainty and speculation about the development of export prices in Russia. The consulting firms IKAR and Sovecon recently announced different prices, but what both have in common is that export prices have recently fallen further. State intervention in pricing policy has not yet been confirmed, but there is a rumor that the government in Moscow is enforcing a minimum price of 260 US dollars per ton. Across the Atlantic, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported a lower production outlook for Argentina. Half of the wheat stocks were rated as “sufficient” or “poor/weak”.The stock exchange expects a wheat harvest of 16.2 million tons, 2 percent less than its previous forecast in September. As in the previous season, drought is causing problems for farmers here. However, there are better production prospects for Australia. Heavy rainfall in recent days has improved the outlook for the harvest, with various private analysis houses increasing their forecasts for Down Under. At the CBOT, despite all the news, wheat went south. Profit-taking after the strong gains of the previous days is primarily cited as the reason for the price setback. Pre-market there was no clear trend across the various contract terms at the moment, but the majority of futures prices on the CBoT today are trending with a slight green sign.

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