Wheat: record exports from the EU

Wheat exporters in the European Union will end this marketing season with record exports. Retailers and market analysts report this today.
This week the EU Commission raised its export forecast for the EU + GB to 31.8 million tons in its monthly report. That would be a four-year high.
France benefited from exceptional business with China and less fierce competition with Russia in selling its large wheat harvest in 2019.
Germany was able to secure many deals with Iran and African countries, while Romania and Bulgaria as well as Poland and the Baltic States also reported very good export business.
The discussion about possible export restrictions from Russia and other Black Sea countries unsettle exporters in the other supplier countries and thus questions the supply of wheat until the next harvest. The available supply from Germany and the Baltic States is narrow after a lot of wheat has already been exported from there.
In the meantime, Russia has already signaled that its wheat will still be exported if the export quota is exhausted.The last-minute demand for wheat with low protein contents could, however, be met from France.
The consulting company FranceAgriMer estimates French wheat exports in the 2019/20 season at 13.2 million tons. That would be even more than the previous record from the 2010/11 marketing year (12.9 million tons) when Russia imposed an export ban.
France's exports rose because the regular customers in Algeria and Morocco bought a lot of grain and the new customer China also ordered French wheat. So far 1.3 million tons of common wheat went there this season, it could end up being 1.5-1.7 million tons. China also unexpectedly bought 600,000 tons of wheat from the Baltic States.
At the end of the season, which closes on June 30, the corona crisis caused demand to subside. The economy of the major wheat importers in the Middle East and Africa is suffering from the collapse of crude oil prices and the stopping of tourism. The purchasing power of these countries has decreased and you are even forced to limit expenditure on food imports. Grain traders are unsure whether Egypt will launch another tender to buy wheat.Since French wheat is currently very competitive on the world market, another GASC order would spur the grain market in Europe once again.