The soybean markets closed on Thursday with premiums of 4 to 7 US cents per contract month. The national spot price according to CmdtyView rose 8 ¾ cents to 9.97 ¾ $/bushel. Soybean meal futures, on the other hand, recorded losses of between $1.60 and $3.70/short ton. Soybean oil gained 60 to 80 points. Trading activity on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) on Thursday was lower than the previous day at around 157,935 contracts. Open interest was at 736,970 contracts, indicating a slight reduction in market participation. USDA weekly export sales showed 428,227 metric tons of alternate soybean sales for the week ending April 24 - up 54.6% from the previous week and up 3.4% from the same period last year. The largest buyer was China with 139,400 tons, of which 134,000 tons were originally reported as "unknown". Germany bought 70,000 tons. For the new harvest, 50,000 tons were sold exclusively to Mexico. In the soybean meal business, 328,219 tons were reported - an 11-week high and at the upper end of expectations (150,000-450,000 tons). At 8,200 tons, soybean oil sales were at the lower end of estimates (4,000-30,000 tons) and also marked an 11-week low. According to NASS, soybean processing (crush) amounted to 206.5 million bushels in March - more than expected. This is an increase of 1.49% compared to the previous year and 8.97% more than in the previous month. The focus is currently on the weather and the trade conflict with China. With the reported rainfall and the resulting improvement in soil moisture, many market participants expect that yields per hectare will continue to develop positively and could tend to rise. At the same time, investors are keeping a close eye on developments in the trade dispute with China, the traditional main buyer of US soybeans. Officially, there is still no progress in the negotiations, but rumors spread in the afternoon that China is now ready for further talks, which supported the market. In Canada, the signs for canola contracts were green. Market participants attributed the upward movement to firm soybean oil prices on the CBoT and the weak Canadian dollar, which improved export prospects. It was also announced that stocks of last year's harvest are shrinking more than expected, which gave the bulls an additional tailwind. Euronext in Paris remained closed on Thursday for the holiday.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The latest developments on the soybean market paint a mixed picture. While rising export figures, particularly to China and Germany, and better-than-expected processing are providing positive impetus, falling soybean meal prices, weak soybean oil sales and lower trading activity are dampening the upward momentum. The weather situation is improving yield prospects, which tends to depress prices. Overall, the market remains balanced between fundamentals and geopolitical uncertainties - with a slightly bullish undertone.
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