Rapeseed prices on Euronext held the EUR 500 mark with aplomb last week. There are reports of dynamic trading and good demand on the domestic cash markets. The price trend on the market is having an effect: many buyers are actively looking for goods. Requests from oil mills cannot always be met. Export business has also picked up slightly due to the recent weakening of the euro. Contracts for the first quarter of 2025 have already been signed, particularly with a view to the coming year. The soy complex in Chicago has not found a clear direction. Beans continued to head south in the middle of the week. By contrast, meal futures held their ground and recorded moderate gains. Forecasts of a very good Brazilian soybean harvest continue to put pressure on prices and keep the bulls in check. The weather conditions in Argentina are also ideal for the upcoming harvest. The announcements by future US President Trump that he may introduce tariffs and thus further restructure US trade policy are causing uncertainty among market participants. Concerned about price increases, buyers from importing countries are actively stocking up on the market - a wise decision. Additional pressure is coming from falling palm oil prices. Previously, these, together with soybean oil, provided a tailwind for the bulls. This morning, the USDA reported private export sales of 30,000 tons of soybean oil to South Korea. The weekly export sales data are eagerly awaited by market participants today. Analysts agree that soybean sales for 2024/25 will be between 1.1 and 2.5 million tons. For 2025/26, 0 to 75,000 tons are expected. The volume of soybean meal is expected to be between 150,000 and 600,000 tons
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
In addition to growing conditions and the weather, many oilseed market participants are currently focusing on the political harbingers of the upcoming term of office of the new US President Trump. The introduction of tariffs in particular could dampen export business and is therefore causing uncertainty among many traders. With regard to the upcoming harvests in the southern hemisphere, the forecasts currently look very good. However, the development of the weather and the associated cultivation conditions remain uncertain. Oilseeds therefore remain volatile.
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