On Monday, the soybean complex on the Chicago Board of Trade was only able to benefit from the bullish sentiment to a limited extent. Since mid-December, oilseeds have mainly been heading north. With the start of the new year, however, the rally lost considerable momentum and futures suffered some significant losses. Soybeans recorded moderate gains in yesterday's trading. The March contract recorded a gain of 6.00 US cents to 997.75 US cents per bushel, equivalent to 352.19 euros/ton. On the other hand, the shot contracts were unable to follow suit and fell over the course of the trading session. The mood was dampened by statements from the new US President Donald Trump. He announced that the introduction of tariffs on individual, critical goods would be prioritized instead of imposing blanket tariffs. Traders fear that the actual implementation of these measures could lead to a weaker development in export business. The USDA's export data did not bring any surprises. Shipments were 1.3 million tons, which was at the upper end of traders' expectations. Compared to the previous week, however, this represents a downward trend (-21.8 %). Compared to the previous year, significantly more goods were loaded, with an increase of 23.5%. Overall, exports amounted to a volume of 29.9 million tons, while the previous year's result was significantly lower at 24.3 million tons. In addition to the export figures and the upcoming WASDE report, the focus is shifting to the weather, as is the case with grain. Problems with heat and a lack of rainfall are currently worsening growing conditions in Argentina and other parts of South America. The weather phenomenon "La Niña" is causing high temperatures and little rainfall. There is no sign of any relief in the next two to three weeks.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
Despite the generally bullish sentiment, the soy complex recorded only moderate gains. US President Donald Trump's statements on the introduction of selective tariffs dampened sentiment and raised fears of weak export growth. Should this actually become a reality, it could give oilseeds a new direction. On the other hand, the current weather forecasts in large parts of South America are causing poor growing conditions. However, it remains to be seen how severe these will actually be.
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