Futures on the CBoT remained volatile against the backdrop of possible tariffs. After the middle of the week was characterized by losses, soybean futures were able to make moderate gains in yesterday's trading in the front futures. Soybean meal futures fell by USD 1.40 to USD 2 per tonne, while soybean oil futures rose by 31 points. According to the latest reports, the USTR (United States Trade Representative) is said to have confirmed that a review of the Phase One trade agreement with China will take place and that it will be enforced. This statement led to a stabilization of futures, which recovered from their morning lows on Thursday. According to the US Department of Agriculture's (USDA) export sales report, 387,718 metric tons of soybeans were sold in the week ending January 30, the lowest in the last four weeks. This figure was at the lower end of estimates for 2024/25, which ranged between 0.3 and 1.1 million tons. Compared to the previous week, sales were down 11.5%, but up 87.9% compared to the same week last year. China was the largest buyer with 208,700 tons, followed by the Netherlands, which bought 125,200 tons. There was also a net reduction of 262,800 tons for unknown destinations, likely indicating a change in destination market. Soybean meal sales reached 530,553 tons for the week ending January 30, which is at the high end of estimates of 200,000 to 550,000 tons and the highest of the season. Soybean oil sales totaled 2,188 tons, which was in the range of estimates for net cancellations of 15,000 tons to sales of 30,000 tons. Meanwhile in Argentina: The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimates that the Argentine 17% of the soybean crop is in excellent condition, down 3% from last week. Normal ratings fell by 1% to 51%, while poor ratings rose by 4% to 32%.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The price trend for soybean futures on the CBoT remained volatile, particularly in the context of potential tariffs and trade policy uncertainties. The announced review of the Phase One trade agreement between the US and China stabilized the markets in the short term. Global influences, including weaker crop valuations in Argentina and uncertainties surrounding possible tariffs in North America, continued to cause movement on the markets. Canola and rapeseed futures also benefited from the international conditions and have recorded gains in recent days. However, the question remains as to what will happen with canola in particular if the tariffs are actually introduced and to what extent this will ultimately affect Euronext rapeseed.
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