07.
03.25
Oilseed traders breathe a sigh of relief after Trump's tariff suspension

Oilseeds News, 07.03.2025

Bullish
  • Temporary suspension of US tariffs on Mexico and Canada
  • Bookings for the new soybean harvest exceed expectations
  • Import requirements of the EU
Bearish
  • Uncertainty Trump's tariff policy
  • US exports partly below expectations
  • Stronger US dollar / Canadian dollar

The soybean market closed trading on Thursday with bullish impulses. Beans recorded up to double-digit gains and meal contracts also rose significantly. The temporary suspension of US tariffs on Mexico and Canada until April 2 was greeted with relief on the market, as was the case with grain prices. Mexico in particular, as the second largest buyer of soybeans from the USA after China, is benefiting from this as it is one of the most important buyers of US agricultural goods. These tariffs were initially suspended for all products covered by the North American trade agreement USMCA, including agricultural goods. Meanwhile, the USDA reported this morning a private export sale of 20,000 metric tons of soybean oil to unknown destinations for 2024/25. This morning's export sales data shows soybean bookings at the low end of estimates for the week of February 27 at 352,883 metric tons. This means that soybean trade has recently developed less dynamically than hoped. Overall, this was 14.1 % less than in the previous week and 42.5 % less than in the same week last year. China was the largest buyer with 205,700 tons, while 114,100 tons went to Germany. Bookings for the new harvest exceeded the upper end of expectations at 54,886 tons. Soybean meal sales totaled 236,677 metric tons, at the low end of estimates but 34.1% higher than last week. Census data showed oilseeds shipped in January totaled 5.21 million metric tons (191.5 mbu), a five-year low for the month. That was 12.57% less than last year and 34.55% less than in December. Trump's surprise decision to temporarily suspend trade tariffs also led to a volatile trading session in Canada on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in Winnipeg. The May contract rose by 2.20 Canadian dollars to 634.60 Canadian dollars per tonne. Initially, news of the temporary lifting of tariffs for Mexico caused prices to rise, as the market expected similar regulations for Canada. However, this effect lost momentum in the afternoon, as there was no official confirmation from the Trump administration by the close of trading that the exemptions would also apply to Canada. The stronger Canadian dollar also put pressure on prices. In Paris, rapeseed contracts on Euronext stabilized after the recent price losses. The May contract rose by 4.00 euros to 503.50 euros per tonne.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

At the moment, prices once again seem unable to find a clear direction. On the one hand, the temporary suspension of US tariffs on Mexico and Canada provided bullish impetus. On the other hand, there were also setbacks, as export bookings for soybeans were below expectations and in some cases fell significantly compared to the previous year. In addition, soybean trade was less dynamic overall than had been hoped. Uncertainty regarding the tariff adjustment for Canada and the stronger Canadian dollar also slowed the positive trend. Overall, the price trend points to an unstable market situation. Trump's tariff policy is likely to remain the focus of the markets.

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