08.
11.24
Green soybean indicators - solid export demand supports prices

Oilseeds News, 08.11.2024

Bullish
  • Global demand from China in particular
  • Competing oil prices
  • Ongoing geopolitical conflicts
  • Area under soybean cultivation in Brazil declining
Bearish
  • Trump victory creates uncertainty for export business
  • Crop forecasts in the USA

Soybean futures found new momentum yesterday afternoon after a weaker start and were able to increase contracts by 16 to 22 ¾ cents over the course of the day. Soybean meal futures were also bullish and closed with solid gains. Thursday morning's export report showed soybean bookings of 2.04 million tons in the week of 31 October. This was at the high end of estimates of 1.2 to 2.2 million tons. Although this was a 3-week low, it was 88.7% higher than the same period last year. The largest buyer was China, which purchased 1.223 million tons, followed by unknown destinations at 152,100 tons. Sales of soybean meal totaled 398,608 tons in the week of October 31, which was at the upper end of estimates of 150,000 tons to 560,000 tons. Soybean oil sales reached 114,311 tons for the week, well above estimates of 0 to 60,000 tons and the largest week of sales since November 2012. The USDA's new baseline projection indicates that analysts expect soybean acres to total 85 million acres (vs. 87.1 million acres this year), down slightly. On the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in Winnipeg, canola prices rose significantly, with the January contract gaining Can-$12.20 to Can-$659.80/ton. This is the highest closing price since July. Market observers attribute the increase to the international rise in vegetable oil prices and uncertainties regarding the Canadian canola harvest, as government forecasts may be too optimistic. On Euronext in Paris, rapeseed contracts also followed the bullish lead, with the February contract rising by €9.75 to €532.75 per tonne.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

After the presidential election, concerns about trade relations receded somewhat into the background. Futures found support in the unchanged high demand. This is unlikely to change for the time being. Market participants are expecting demand to pick up before the inauguration. Prices on Euronext in Paris also rose significantly, driven by international vegetable oil prices and uncertainties surrounding the Canadian canola harvest. Overall, the oilseed market remains volatile, although the signs currently appear to be rather bullish.

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