On Thursday, soybean futures rose by 4 to 6 cents, despite a weaker start. However, soybean meal futures posted losses, while soybean oil futures ended trading in the red. For today's export report, traders expect volumes between 0.4 and 1.3 million tons of soybeans for 2024/25, with soymeal sales estimated at 150,000 to 400,000 tons and soybean oil sales at 20,000 to 60,000 tons. Dry weather is expected for Argentina and southern Brazil over the next seven days before it gets wetter again from January 20. As with grain, the weather is also a concern for market participants. Meteorologists from NOAA have confirmed that the duration of the weather phenomenon is likely to be limited to just a few weeks. By the end of April, experts expect the effects to slowly subside.
Today, the first WASDE report of the year will be released, with U.S. soybean yield expected to drop 0.1 bushels per acre to 51.6 bushels per acre (about 1.404 tons per hectare). Production is estimated at 4.453 billion bushels. Analysts also expect Brazil's crop to increase by 1.28 million tons to 170.28 million tons and Argentina's crop to decline slightly to 51.91 million tons. Global ending stocks are expected to rise to 132.20 million tons.
On the Winnipeg stock exchange, prices remained volatile for another consecutive trading day and failed to find a clear direction. Prices also did not benefit from the stable conditions on Euronext in Paris, where rapeseed contracts continued their northward trend. The February contract rose by €4.25 to €533.25/t.
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The upcoming WASDE report will also focus on oilseeds. Oilseeds only found a limited direction this week. The weather in some parts of South America in particular supported prices, even though a very large harvest is still expected in Brazil, meaning that neither the bulls nor the bears were able to take the lead. Many market participants are expecting the latest USDA report to change this and give prices some direction.
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