The soy complex recovered noticeably in the middle of the week. May contracts rose significantly on the CBoT and closed at USD 10.29 per bushel, an increase of 16.25 cents. The positive market sentiment was supported by the publication of the latest WASDE report. In it, the USDA lowered US ending stocks slightly to 375 million bushels, while the processing forecast was raised to 2.42 billion bushels. Global stocks rose to 122.47 million tons, mainly due to a retroactively higher Brazilian harvest in the previous year. Soybean meal futures followed the upward trend and increased in price by USD 2.10 to 3.50 per tonne. The soybean oil market was volatile. While it rose by 4 to 13 points in the middle of the week, there were slight losses of up to 98 points at the start of the week. Trade tensions once again had a negative impact. The USA tightened its tariffs on Chinese goods to up to 104%, while at the same time announcing a 90-day tariff pause for other countries - although China remains excluded. The USDA's weekly export data was mixed. Soybean sales came in at 172,324 tons - an 8-week low, but in line with expectations. China remained the most important buyer with 141,300 tons. A 7-week high of 275,955 tons was reached for soybean meal, while soybean oil showed solid demand at 20,195 tons. In addition, an export order for 198,000 tons of soybeans to unknown recipients was announced. Profit and loss phases alternated on the rapeseed market. In the middle of the week, the May contract on Euronext rose by €4.25 to €512.00 per tonne. However, this was followed by a correction of €9.25 to €507.75/t the very next day. Market participants do not yet see the latest tariff relaxations fully priced in, which is keeping trading volatile.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The soybean market is currently reacting sensitively to political developments and US trade measures. While rising crush rates and firm export data are providing support, the uncertainty surrounding the US-China conflict remains a significant risk factor. Positive impetus is also coming from the biofuel side: the call for an increase in the US biodiesel mandate could further boost demand for soybean oil in the long term. Rapeseed and canola are stable, but are also reacting to the political environment.