11.
10.24
US soybean exports at the lower end of expectations - prices under pressure

Oilseeds News, 11th / Oct / 2024

Bullish
  • Global demand
  • Expectations in the context of the WASDE report (declining closing stocks)
  • Uncertainty Weather conditions in the USA
Bearish
  • Weaker US exports
  • Weak economic data China/USA

Soybean contracts closed yesterday's trading day with losses of between 4 and 6 US cents. Also meal had to fall further, whereas soybean oil was able to escape the downward pull and made moderate gains. US export sales data was released this morning, with soybean sales for 2024/25 totaling 1.264 million metric tons for the week ending October 3. This was the lowest figure in recent weeks of the marketing year to date and represents a 12.4% decrease from the previous week. Nevertheless, it is 30.1% more than in the same week last year. China was the largest buyer with 583,400 tons, followed by the Netherlands with 207,300 tons and Mexico with 134,900 tons. Sales of soybean meal only amounted to 165,717 tons in the week to 3 October, which was at the lower end of the estimates of 100,000 to 400,000 tons. Soybean oil sales were also at the lower end of expectations. Ahead of the monthly WASDE report, a Bloomberg survey of analysts estimates that US ending stocks of beans will fall due to smaller projected production. Global ending stocks are estimated at 134.6 million tons, in line with the previous month, as South American production is expected to see little change. In Canada, the rapid pace of harvesting is putting pressure on the market. Weather conditions are extremely favorable in large parts of the country, meaning that work in the fields is progressing rapidly. Canola prices have accordingly left the market with slight losses.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

On the soybean and canola markets, market participants are eagerly awaiting today's WASDE report, just as they are for grain. A Bloomberg survey estimates that US ending stocks of beans will fall due to lower forecast production. However, if production turns out to be higher than expected, stocks could rise, putting pressure on prices again. In addition, US exports have recently shown a slight decline again and are less dynamic. It remains to be seen whether the new economic stimulus program will be able to boost demand again.

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