Oilseeds News, 12th / Apr / 2024

The bottom line is that rapeseed went north this week. Last Friday, the leading May contract was still at 445.75 euros, but by the closing bell yesterday, Thursday, it was 451.50 euros/t. As is often the case, things remain manageable on the spot markets, but quantities are still being traded here and there. The fact that rapeseed was able to gain is due, among other things, to the increased fighting in Ukraine. The fighting had already intensified last week, and this week Russia attacked targets in two port cities. But the outlook for the coming harvest is also supporting prices. Although farmers are less concerned about quality than with grain, a smaller harvest in Europe is still expected in 2024 compared to the previous year. In Germany, the harvest will be significantly smaller, while in France more rapeseed is likely to come from the fields due to a larger area under cultivation. The publication of the harvest forecasts as part of yesterday's WASDE brought only minor changes. There was no adjustment among the world's largest producers. The USDA still estimates the 2023/24 European harvest at 20 million tonnes, while Canada's is at 18.8 million tonnes. Due to adjustments in other countries, the harvest was increased by a good 317,000 tonnes compared to the last forecast in March. Rapeseed meal remains in short supply in Germany. Demand is still good in relation to supply. Regionally, there are therefore rising trends for rapeseed meal prices. Soybeans rose this week. Things did move south after the WASDE was published. Prices went south, particularly because the USDA did not make any adjustments to the production forecasts for South America. Downward adjustments were expected for Brazil in particular. The Brazilian agricultural authority made these yesterday. It reduced its own forecast by 300,000 tonnes to 146.1 million tonnes. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange also adjusted its own expectations and puts this year's Argentinian harvest at 51.0 million tonnes. That is 1.5 million tonnes less than the stock exchange had recently expected. Export figures in the USA are also disappointing this week. In general, competition from the ongoing harvest in Brazil is having a bearish effect on US prices. Support, however, is coming from more difficult weather forecasts for the Corn Belt.