13.
03.25
Soybean market under pressure: Possible counter tariffs weigh on the market

Oilseeds News, 13.03.2025

Bullish
  • Global demand for oilseeds
  • Decline in acreage: Acreage in Canada has fallen for soybeans and rapeseed compared to the previous year
  • Uncertainty Weather conditions in the USA
Bearish
  • Introduction of retaliatory tariffs by the EU
  • Strikes in Argentina
  • US trade dispute continues

On Wednesday, soybeans experienced a decline of 9 to 11 cents in most of the leading futures at the close of trading. Soymeal futures also slipped, falling $1.70 to $2.50 per metric ton. Soybean oil futures were also weaker, joining the bearish sentiment. Concerns about the introduction of retaliatory tariffs by the EU are growing. These tariffs, which are being imposed as a result of President Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs, are due to come into force at the beginning of April and will also affect soybeans. The USA has already delivered 4.5 million tons of soybeans to the EU this marketing year. The publication of the weekly USDA report on export sales is imminent. Estimates for soybean exports in 2024/25 range from 275,000 to 700,000 tons, while new crop sales are estimated at 0 to 100,000 tons. Exports of soybean meal are also expected to range between 190,000 and 410,000 tons and soybean oil between 40,000 and 85,000 tons. In addition, Stats Canada's cultivation plans were published this morning. These show that producers are expected to plant 21.65 million acres of canola this year, a decrease of 1.7% compared to last year. Soybean acreage is estimated at 5.64 million acres, down 1.37% from last year. According to media reports, strikes in oilseed processing have begun in Argentina and continue to be the dominant issue there. Employees of the Vicentin Group are said to be walking off the job after the company only paid 30% of the agreed wages. Argentina is the world's largest exporter of processed soybeans.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The soybean market is under pressure due to political uncertainties, such as the introduction of counter tariffs by the EU, and generally good production forecasts. At the same time, strong export demand and limited acreage in Canada could support prices. Looking ahead to the coming days, Trump's policies and the counter-reactions, as well as the development of stocks, will determine the future direction of the market.

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13.
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17:25

Rapeseed / canola - stabilization despite global abundance of oilseeds The oilseed complex is characterized globally by high production volumes and rising ending stocks, particularly for soybeans in South America. At the same time, the IGC analysis signals rising oilseed production and higher global stocks overall, which structurally limits the…

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23.
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12:53

Rapeseed Weekly market development Global: USDA and other forecasts show rising global rapeseed production (including Australia, Canada, Russia) and higher ending stocks. EU context: Sufficient oilseed supply overall; no bottleneck signals. Trend: EU & global: stable to slightly bearish 2-4 week outlook: Sideways, with slight downside risk as…

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