Soybean prices on the CBoT mostly moved sideways in the past week. The most traded November futures contract started on Monday at 1,005 US cents/bushel and ended on Thursday at 1,010 US cents/bu. Export reports have been at the upper end of analysts' expectations for weeks. Demand from China is surprisingly positive. There is speculation as to whether the country is already increasing its reserves in case the next president introduces trade restrictions.
The USDA recently left its estimates for yields per hectare in the USA at a record level of 53.2 bu/acre. The estimate for global production was cut slightly, which provided stability for prices.
According to USDA calculations, global soybean stocks in 2024/25 will rise to a record 134.6 million tons (previous year: 112.25 million tons). The fundamental data thus remains bearish and speaks in favor of the current price level.
Canola prices literally collapsed this week after China only threatened to impose import duties. Stocks are already very high, with additional pressure coming from the crude oil markets. In the EU, on the other hand, rapeseed prices remain at a comparatively high level. There has been no change in the tight supply situation in Europe.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
Soybean prices are likely to remain at a low level as the global supply situation is relaxed. China's further import requirements are uncertain; the country may already be well stocked up. In the EU, the supply balance for rapeseed remains tight and prices remain comparatively high.
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