Compared to Friday of last week, rapeseed was slightly firmer on Euronext/Matif. Yesterday's closing price was 468.00 euros/t, 2 euros higher than a week ago. Trading on the cash market remains manageable, but prices for ex-harvest contracts have recently risen, according to market participants. The focus this week was also on new production estimates. The latest forecast from the European umbrella organization of grain traders caused prices to rise. In its third harvest forecast, Cocereal anticipates European production of 18.5 million tons, which corresponds to a decline of 1.66 million tons compared to the previous year. In particular, rapeseed cultivation has fallen significantly in the two most important producing countries, France and Germany. The association is still forecasting 4 million tons for France and 3.91 million tons for Germany. In Germany, the lower area under cultivation is primarily responsible for the decline in production. In France, on the other hand, yield expectations per hectare are significantly lower. There were surprises for rapeseed at a global level in the USDA's WASDE. The next harvest is estimated at 87.065 million tons, around 1.7 million tons below the previous year's level. The red pencil has been applied to Europe in particular. After 20 million tons in the previous year, the USDA now expects 18.75 million tons.
Prices on the soybean market have recently risen again somewhat. There were no surprises in the WASDE report on Wednesday. The USDA did not change its estimate for global production and continues to expect a harvest of 422.26 million tons, which is still a significant increase compared to the previous year. Soybeans recently benefited from a total of four flash sales. Yesterday, a sale of 120,000 tons of soybeans to an unknown buyer was announced. Analysts suspect that China is behind this, confirming the rumors of a few weeks ago about a Chinese buying spree through the USA. On the weather side, model observations indicate a heat wave in the Midwest. The thermometer is likely to rise to up to 40 degrees Celsius. However, this is unlikely to have a major impact as soybeans in the USA have their most important vegetation phase in August.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
Muted prospects for rapeseed, good for soybeans. The oilseed markets do not present a uniform picture. However, prices have been stable recently. China could provide further impetus.
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