Rapeseed has made a friendly start to the new week. Yesterday's closing price on Monday was 484.75 euros/t in the new front month of August 24. Rapeseed prices also closed firmer for the whole of last week. On Monday of last week, the August contract was still quoted at 476.25 euros/t. Canola in Winnipeg also made further gains recently. Here, however, rainfall in the western prairie regions provided some relief for farmers. Fresh figures for the coming harvest were released by the USDA for the first time last Friday. As part of the WASDE, the 2024/25 rapeseed harvest was also estimated for the first time. According to this, the global production volume is likely to be around the same level as the previous year and is estimated at 88.3 million tons. The experts have lowered the forecast for Europe to 19 million tons compared to the previous year (previous year: 20 million tons). In contrast, there will be increases in Canada, where around 600,000 tons more rapeseed is expected, and in Australia, where around 800,000 tons more will be harvested compared to the previous year. Due to a smaller area under cultivation, the harvest in Ukraine is expected to be 3.7 million tons, which is 700,000 tons less than in 2023/24. Due to the smaller harvest and constant rapeseed demand in Europe, the USDA expects EU imports of 6.6 million tons and is therefore forecasting a 1.1 million ton increase in imports for the international community compared to the current marketing year. Turnover on the cash markets remains manageable and the volume of contracts concluded for the coming harvest is still below average. Nevertheless, the higher prices have increased producers' willingness to sell. Rapeseed meal remains in short supply in the short term, with prices remaining unchanged to slightly firmer depending on the region. However, the futures curves on the trading exchanges indicate falling prices for the rest of the year.
Soybeans were also firmer for the most part in the past week. Export figures were solid recently. With 430,000 tons sold, the highest figure of the last four weeks was recently registered. However, the WASDE on Friday did not provide any significant impetus. As expected, the US harvest is higher. Compared to the current season, an 8 percent increase in the harvest is expected. For Brazil, USDA experts also expect a further increase in acreage and harvest volume. For the current season, however, market participants were disappointed with the downward revisions for South America. Larger steps were expected here. Yesterday, soybeans rose slightly and started the new trading week slightly firmer. Soybean meal, on the other hand, was recently under selling pressure. Soybean oil is benefiting from the US government's plans to significantly increase import tariffs on edible oils from China.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
As expected, the 2024/25 soybean harvest is likely to be much larger. However, this will only have a partial negative impact. Overall, demand for oilseeds remains high. There are signs that rapeseed prices will remain high this year. Prices have risen significantly and the outlook for the coming harvest in Europe is mixed, while consumption expectations remain constant.
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