15.
05.25
Vegetable oil markets on the move - soy with tailwind, rapeseed weaker

Oilseeds News, 15.05.2025

Bullish
  • Reduced global availability due to Indonesian export tax on palm oil
  • Lower stocks of soybean oil (NOPA estimate)
  • Pending extension of the US biofuels tax credit (45Z), supports soybean oil
  • Higher export expectations for soybeans according to USDA survey
Bearish
  • Seasonal supply pressure due to progressive planting in the USA
  • Raising of the Argentine soybean harvest estimate by Rosario Stock Exchange
  • Declining prices for canola (ICE) and rapeseed (Euronext)

The soybean market saw slight price gains in the nearby futures contracts on Wednesday. Quotations rose by 1 to 5 ¼ cents, while the May contract was taken out of trading as planned. The national cash price for soybeans was USD 10.27 ¾ per bushel. Soybean meal futures slipped USD 1.30 per ton, while soybean oil contracts saw an upward movement of 52 to 72 points. The USDA's export sales data will be published on Thursday. Current forecasts expect soybean export bookings for the 2024/25 marketing year to be in the range of 200,000 to 500,000 tons for the week ending May 8. Sales of the new harvest are estimated at 350,000 to 500,000 tons. For soybean meal, sales volumes are expected to be between 90,000 and 350,000 tons and for soybean oil between 0 and 34,000 tons. A change in the political framework affects Indonesia, where the export tax on crude palm oil will be raised from 7.5% to 10% from May 17. This could affect the global competitive position of vegetable oils. NOPA data on soybean processing in April is also expected on Thursday. Forecasts call for around 184.64 million bushels milled. This represents a 5.1% decrease from the previous month, but is 9% higher than last year. Soybean oil stocks are estimated at around 1.412 billion pounds. The exchange in Rosario has increased its harvest estimate for the Argentine soybean season to 48.5 million tons. This represents an increase of 3 million tons compared to previous estimates and may have an impact on global supply.

Prices in the rapeseed segment are currently falling. The July canola price on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in Winnipeg fell by 7.80 Canadian dollars to CAD 721.50 per tonne. On the Paris Euronext exchange, August canola also fell by 5.50 euros to 484.00 euros per tonne

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

The oilseed markets are currently showing a mixed picture. While soybeans are receiving slight support from optimistic export expectations and an increased harvest estimate from Argentina, rapeseed remains under pressure. Negative factors such as global competition and price markdowns for canola are weighing on sentiment. Market participants are eagerly awaiting the upcoming US reports and global supply developments.

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