Following the price slump last week, rapeseed prices are beginning to recover significantly. On the Paris exchange, the Nov.24 front month is back at around 465 €/t. On the Canadian Winnipeg exchange, prices are recovering to the equivalent of 395 €/t. Support is coming from the stabilized crude oil and palm oil prices. The critical situation in the global economy and the political and military tensions in the Middle East are having an impact in the background.
However, price pressure is coming from the soybean sector, which according to the latest estimates is in an above-average supply situation.
Current information on the market assessment based on the USDA report of Aug. 12.24
Rapeseed: The USDA's estimate of the global rapeseed harvest remains unchanged at 88.8 million tons. For Canada, the US Department of Agriculture continues to expect around 20 million tons, while 18.9 million tons are expected for the EU-27. In China, the result falls to 15.6 million tons, while an increase of 12 million tons is expected for India. Canada remains the largest exporter with just under 7.5 million tons or a trade share of 45%. The EU is the world's largest importer with around 6.3 million tons or a 40% share. Australia is expected to reach a multi-year average level again with 5.5 million tons. Ukraine's production will fall by 21% to 3.7 million tons. Global rapeseed consumption is estimated at 88.7 million tons, so that no price-dampening build-up of stocks is to be expected. Global rapeseed supplies remain tight.
Palm oil: Compared to the previous month's estimate of over 80 million tons, the USDA report now assumes 79.8 million tons. Indonesia in particular, with a market share of just under 60%, will remain below the previous year's level. Malaysian production, with a market share of just under 25%, will remain unchanged. The increasing domestic use of biodiesel for blending limits the export potential. The EU is reducing its imports to 4 million tons. Global palm oil availability is becoming considerably tighter than in previous years.
Soya: Global soya supply in 2024/25 is estimated to be above average with an increase of +8.5% to 429 million tons. Consumption is estimated at 406 million tons. This means that there will be a considerable price-suppressing build-up of stocks in the current marketing year. The highly rated South American harvests, which will not be sown until Oct. 24, should still be viewed critically.
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