15.
03.24
Rapeseed does not find a consistent direction

Oilseeds News, 15th / Mar / 2024

Bullish
  • Forecast for rapeseed production in the EU has fallen
  • Experts expect increased soy processing
  • Global demand remains high
Bearish
  • Quiet trading on the cash markets
  • Weak US export figures
  • China's buying interest is currently declining
Spot markets at a glance Euro/ton
Bread wheat Feb 16 Feb 22 March 29th March 7th March 14th +/-
Hamburg 210.00 206.00 205.00 200.00 204.00 4.00
Lower Rhine 207.00 203.00 202.00 197.00 201.00 4.00
Upper Rhine 200.00 196.00 195.00 190.00 194.00 4.00
East Germany 194.00 190.00 189.00 184.00 188.00 4.00
feed wheat
Hamburg 208.00 204.00 203.00 198.00 202.00 4.00
Oldenburg 198.00 194.00 193.00 188.00 192.00 4.00
feed barley
Hamburg 173.00 174.00 173.00 168.00 170.00 2.00
East Germany 148.00 149.00 148.00 143.00 145.00 2.00
Grain corn
South Oldenburg 189.00 185.00 185.00 180.00 184.00 4.00
Spot markets at a glance Euro/ton
Rapeseed 16. Feb. March 29th March 29th March 7th March 14th +/-
Hamburg 415.00 415.00 403.00 425.00 438.00 13.00
Straubingen 410.00 410.00 398.00 416.00 429.00 13.00
Soybean meal
Hamburg 436.00 424.00 414.00 413.00 415.00 2.00
Magdeburg 446.00 434.00 424.00 423.00 425.00 2.00
Mainz 455.00 442.00 433.00 434.00 425.00 -9.00
Rapeseed meal
Hamburg 290.00 290.00 290.00 290.00 290.00 0.00
Hamm 270.00 282.00 275.00 293.00 297.00 4.00
Lower Rhine 265.00 273.00 269.00 286.00 292.00 6.00

In Paris, rapeseed could not find a unified direction. While the front month ended the trading day with a loss, the back dates stood still and were even able to gain slightly in some cases. On the Canadian stock exchange, canola contracts continued to head south shortly before the weekend. Professional investors in particular were not really active in trading and thus put prices under pressure. The local oil mills are currently showing little interest in buying on the cash markets - the supply should be largely covered by spring, market participants report. Analysts from the international analysis house Strategie Grains have lowered their forecast for this year's rapeseed production in the EU to 18.3 million t. That is 0.1 million t less than the previous forecast and almost 8 percent less than the previous year. An estimate by French analyst firm Tallage also suggests that EU rapeseed production could fall in the coming marketing year. A decline of almost 8 percent is expected here. The soy complex did not find consistent direction in yesterday's trading. The beans had to give in further in the earlier dates. The bulls were able to prevail at the later contract dates and ensured marginal profits. When it came to shot, the signs glowed green. Export bookings totaled 376,000 tonnes. The result was significantly below the previous week's value (-40%), but was in line with analyst expectations. Today's report from NOPA is eagerly awaited. NOPA is the North American industry association and publishes monthly soy processing figures. Most market participants expect 178.1 million tons to be processed in February. That would be an increase of 7% compared to the previous year. Meanwhile, the IGC experts assume that the final stocks of oilseeds for the current season amount to 165.9 million tons. A final inventory of 172.1 million tons is expected for the coming season.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

After last week's gains and at the start of this week, oilseed markets on the other side of the Pacific consolidated again. The report on soy processing is eagerly awaited this Friday. Market observers expect that processing has increased compared to the previous year. With regard to export transactions, trading is currently quiet, so price developments are likely to remain exciting in the coming week.

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