Mixed development in the oilseed sector
Rapeseed prices are back on the upward rollercoaster ride. Prices on the Paris stock exchange are climbing above the €480/t mark, after falling below the €470/t line in the previous week. The driving impetus came from the Winnipeg Stock Exchange in Canada, where canola prices rose sharply. According to publications by Statistics Canada, a reduced acreage combined with only just average yields should lead to a significantly smaller harvest of 18.1 million tons. The last USDA estimate was 20 million tons.
In the EU-27, the rapeseed harvest is expected to be below 19 million tons (previous year: 20 million tons). In France, the rapeseed harvest will be -7.7% lower at 3.9 million tons. For Germany, the DRV estimates a smaller harvest of 3.8 million tons or -10% below the previous year.
Soybean prices on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange are falling repeatedly; soybean meal prices are following suit, while soybean oil is showing firm to slightly rising trends. At the beginning of the week, US seed prices are up almost 10 percentage points on the previous year.
Palm oil prices are showing a firm sideways trend for the time being.
Oilseeds-Update,
Oilseed markets: rapeseed prices rise above €500/t on Euronext futures
Current developments on the oilseed markets show a rise in rapeseed prices above €500/t on Euronext November 2024 futures. This trend is mainly due to the increased acreage of canola in Winnipeg, accompanied by extremely hot and dry weather in Canada at the worst possible time. These conditions have led to funds buying more products such as corn and soybeans yesterday.
In addition to the overall support from these developments, prices in Minneapolis have also stabilized due to concerns about the impact of hot weather on spring wheat in Canada and the US. After the close of trade yesterday, the USDA released its weekly crop rating showing corn down 1 point to 67% "good to excellent" while soybeans remained at 68% and spring wheat was unchanged at 77%.
Of particular note is the exceptional sale of 133,000 tons of US corn to Mexico for 2024-25, as announced yesterday by the USDA. These developments are currently shaping the oilseed markets and should be taken into account when making further decisions in the agricultural sector.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The oilseed market is moving unevenly. The global supply of rapeseed will be tighter due to reduced harvests. In comparison, the global soybean market is expected to be well supplied. The palm oil market is stagnating. Accordingly, the respective prices are developing differently
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