Soybean futures had a firmer trading session on Thursday with gains of 10 to 15 cents at the close. Soymeal futures rose $1.30/ton over the course of the day and soybean oil futures were also in the green. Export sales data has been postponed until this Friday morning and traders expect bean sales between 100,000 and 500,000 tons from the old crop for the week of Feb. 13 to March 13. Sales from the new crop are estimated at up to 100,000 tons. Soybean meal sales are estimated at 200,000-600,000 tons. The International Grains Council lowered its forecast for the global soybean harvest by 2 million tons to 418 million tons, with ending stocks falling by 2 million tons to 82 million tons. The Argentinian soybean harvest was estimated at 17% excellent, 2% higher than the previous week and above the poor category (34%). The Union for the Promotion of Oil and Protein Crops pointed out in a new publication that the USA, Brazil and Argentina account for 80% of global soybean production, while China lags far behind with only 5%. In Brazil, the area under cultivation is expected to increase by 1.3 million to 47.4 million hectares, thus consolidating its leading position in soybean production. By February 7, around 15.1 percent of the land had been harvested, slightly less than the long-term average. In the USA, last year's harvest was completed with 118.8 million tons, an increase of 5.6 million tons compared to the previous year. The Argentinian harvest is expected to reach 49 million tons, 790,000 tons more than in the previous year. In China, the harvest is forecast to be lower than in 2024 at 20.7 million tons. Meanwhile, canola prices on the ICE in Winnipeg continued to rise, with the March contract posting a gain of 5.60 to 667.90 can-$/t. May rapeseed on Euronext in Paris also climbed by €3.75 to €533.00/t.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
After losses in the previous days, oilseeds recovered somewhat shortly before the weekend and posted moderate gains. The area under cultivation in Brazil continues to grow and although the harvest was recently revised slightly downwards, overall production remains more than solid. The USA and Argentina are also expecting stable harvests, meaning that the outlook could continue to put pressure on futures. For the time being, the weather and the resulting growing conditions remain the driving factor.
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