Oilseeds News, 22.11.2024

Prices for rapeseed on the futures market in Paris got off to a euphoric start last week, reaching a long-term high of EUR 543 per tonne on Monday. However, a countermovement followed at the end of the week and prices slumped to just EUR 510.75 per tonne for the February date at the close on Thursday.

Soybean prices in the USA followed a similar trend, also reaching a weekly high on Monday and since then falling back below the 1,000 US cents per bushel mark. The US has a large soybean harvest and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects a record global production of 425.4 million tons. The good harvest forecasts in large parts of Brazil in particular put pressure on prices. The improved weather and the resulting better growing conditions give growers hope for a good harvest. The Brazilian agricultural association Abiove raised its production forecast to a record 167.7 million tons. Despite reports from the US Department of Agriculture about export sales to China and other countries, the downward trend could not be halted. Chinese customs data showed that the country imported over 8 million tons of soybeans in October. Most recently, the strong US dollar also weighed on export expectations.

According to USDA estimates, global oilseed production is expected to reach a record level of around 682.2 million tons in the 2024/25 marketing year, which corresponds to an increase of almost 4% compared to the previous year. This is due in particular to the record soybean harvest, for which the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) expects global production to reach 425.4 million tons. Global rapeseed production, on the other hand, is estimated to be 3% lower at 87.2 million tons, mainly due to a weak harvest in the EU. Global oilseed processing is estimated to peak at 556.9 million tons and global ending stocks are expected to reach 147.7 million tons, 16 million tons more than in the previous year.