Soybean futures were significantly firmer at the close of trading on Thursday, following a weaker start to trading overnight. Contracts gained 3 to 5 cents, supported by strong gains in soybean meal prices. The cmdtyView cash bean price rose 5 cents to USD 10.18 per bushel. Soybean meal futures gained USD 3.10 to USD 4.60 per ton, while soybean oil contracts closed with losses between 37 and 72 points. The USDA released its weekly Export Sales report this morning, reporting 307,939 metric tons of old crop soybeans for the week ending May 15, above expectations of 100,000 to 300,000 metric tons. This was an increase of 9% compared to the previous week and 10.2% compared to the same week in 2024. The main buyer was Mexico with 134,100 tons, followed by sales to unknown destinations with 43,000 tons. For the new 2025/26 season, 15,000 tons were sold, which was below estimates of 90,000 to 400,000 tons. Soybean meal sales totaled 382,652 tons, of which 359,579 tons were for the current season - within trade estimates of 100,000 to 450,000 tons. Soybean oil sales of 13,660 tons were in the mid-range of expectations of 0 to 32,000 tons.
Canola prices on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in Winnipeg were weaker again: July canola lost CAD 0.10 and closed at CAD 715.90 per tonne. In contrast, the rapeseed market on Euronext in Paris was firm, with the August contract rising by EUR 4.25 to EUR 489.25 per tonne. Statistics Canada reported a 0.8% month-on-month decline in the industrial product price index in April, while it rose by 2.0% year-on-year. The commodity price index fell by 3.0% month-on-month and by 3.6% year-on-year.
According to the latest monthly report from the International Grains Council, global soybean production remains stable at 428 million tons. Global consumption is increasing by 2 million tons, while stocks for 2025/26 have been reduced by 2 million tons to 81 million tons.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The soybean market has been volatile recently, with moderate price gains despite a weaker start. Robust demand for soybeans and soybean meal, particularly from Mexico and other important importing countries, is supporting prices. At the same time, slight falls in soybean oil prices are having a dampening effect. Although the stable global production situation, as confirmed in the latest International Grains Council Report, is easing inventory levels, momentum in the export markets remains a key price factor and higher inventories are creating a certain amount of supply pressure and therefore more bearish impetus. In addition, geopolitical developments such as trade agreements and export regulations, as well as weather conditions in the main growing regions, continue to influence oilseeds.
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