24.
01.25
Fluctuations in oilseeds and vegetable oils

Oilseeds News, 24.01.2025

Bullish
  • Potential market support due to weather risks or production problems in main growing countries.
Bearish
  • Ongoing problems in Brazilian exports due to quality defects
  • Impending US tariffs on Chinese imports could weigh on demand

At the beginning of the week, the soybean complex showed slight signs of recovery. Prices for soybean contracts in March rose by 9.40 US cents to 1,065.40 US cents/bushel (375.40 €/t). At the same time, prices for soybean meal fell slightly, dropping by 0.50 US cents to 315.30 US cents/bushel (332.11 €/t). Problems in Brazil, where difficulties with unloading in Chinese ports led to lower base bids, had a negative impact. According to the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture, only five companies are affected by these problems and exports to China are hardly affected overall.

In the rapeseed and canola sector, the picture was mixed. While canola prices on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in Winnipeg rose by 7.30 to 637.40 Can-$/t, February rapeseed on the Paris Euronext fell slightly, dropping by €0.25 to €525.50/t.

The palm oil market also showed small gains. Prices for palm oil in March rose by 1 ringgit to MYR 4,320/t on the Malaysian exchange. Soybean oil in the USA followed a similar trend, rising by 0.62 US cents to 45.04 US cents/pound (€952.54/t) for March.

However, the general mood in Southeast Asia remained subdued. Reasons for this included unfavorable currency developments and lower demand from India, one of the main buyers. Additional pressure came from global uncertainties, as there were fears that the USA could impose new tariffs on imports from China in February. Towards the end of the week, however, the upcoming Lunar New Year celebrations and the month of fasting in March provided some stabilization, as there was speculation that demand would increase. At the same time, China suspended imports from five Brazilian companies due to violations of health regulations.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

Oilseeds benefit in the short term from rising demand due to public holidays. Soybeans and canola are showing gains, palm oil is picking up. Risks remain due to export problems in Brazil, China's import ban and possible US tariffs on China. In the long term, geopolitical uncertainties could weigh on the market.

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