Oilseeds News, 25.04.2025

The soybean markets were in robust shape on Thursday: futures rose significantly by 8 to 13 cents, driven by solid spot price development and positive signals from international trade. According to CmdtyView, the national spot price for soybeans rose by 15 ¼ cents to USD 10.06 ¾ per bushel. While futures for soybean meal fell by USD 1.20 to USD 2.10 per tonne in the front months of delivery, soybean oil contracts gained across the board. A significant impulse came from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT): the futures exchange announced on Thursday that the daily price limits for soybeans would be extended by 5 cents to 75 cents from May 1. This measure reflects the increased volatility in the market and will give market participants more room for maneuver when setting prices in the future. Market players are also focusing on the geopolitical dimension of trade: Japan is considering expanding its soybean imports from the USA as part of ongoing negotiations. The background to this is the desire to partially offset the recent decline in demand caused by China with alternative buyers. Japan imports between 3.0 and 3.5 million tons of soybeans annually, of which 2.1 to 2.6 million tons have so far come from the USA. An expansion of this trade relationship could significantly improve the export prospects for US soybeans in the medium term. However, the USDA's weekly export report published on Thursday was mixed. In the week ending April 17, old crop contracts for 277,012 metric tons were registered - an increase of 31.3% compared to the same period last year, but 50.1% below the previous week's level and at the lower end of market expectations (200,000 to 600,000 metric tons). The largest buyers were Mexico with 87,800 tons and the Netherlands with 65,800 tons. Only a minimal net decline of 120 tons was reported for the new 2025/26 harvest, while the picture for soybean products was also mixed: soybean meal sales amounted to 176,178 tons, which was at the lower end of analysts' estimates (150,000 to 400,000 tons). Bookings for soybean oil amounted to 12,380 tons and were thus within the expected range (5,000 to 35,000 tons). Canola futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) in Winnipeg were firmer on Thursday. The May contract rose by CAD 16.40 to close at CAD 692.40 per tonne. Rapeseed prices also rose on Euronext in Paris: August futures rose by EUR 4.75 to EUR 475.50 per tonne. In the week from April 21 to 25, 2025, rapeseed prices on the Euronext exchange were thus stable to slightly lower. Despite the positive market trend, there was largely no fundamental news from the Canadian agricultural sector in the middle of the week. Instead, many farmers and market participants turned their attention to the overall economic situation in the country - and this is causing increasing uncertainty. A recent report by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) shows that the Canadian economy recorded only slight growth in the first quarter of 2025. According to the CFIB, annualized gross domestic product only increased by 0.8% - a clear sign of a weakening economy. For the second quarter, the organization even expects a significant decline in economic output of 5.6%. The reasons for this negative forecast include persistently high inflation, restrained investment by small and medium-sized enterprises and a weak domestic economy overall. These economic conditions could also have an impact on the agricultural sector - for example through lower consumer purchasing power or a declining willingness to invest in agriculture.