The foreseeable tight supply situation on the entire rapeseed market in 2024/25 is keeping the market price trend under tension. Prices continue to rise and fall in a range from €475 to just under €500 per tonne. The two market leaders, palm oil and soybeans, are providing impetus with opposing trends. Palm oil prices are trending upwards, while soybean prices are trending downwards with some fluctuations. A weakening crude oil price is having an effect in the background. This limits the upward scope for rapeseed prices.
In Germany, the current rapeseed harvest is repeatedly interrupted by rainfall, with regional differences. In addition to thunderstorm and hail damage, yields are also reduced as a result of rapeseed not being harvested on time.
According to FranceAgriMer, the French rapeseed harvest continues to fall short of expectations.
Soybean prices on the Chicago Stock Exchange have recovered to the equivalent of € 385 per tonne after repeated falls. At the end of July, US seed prices were still almost 10 percentage points above the previous year's good to excellent ratings. However, there are concerns about regional heat and drought.
After a brief period of weakness, palm oil prices are currently trending slightly upwards again. Malaysia's exports are showing growth rates of 31% in the current month of July. In contrast, current production has only increased by 15 % in the same period. The peak of the year-round harvest is the month of Oct.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The oilseed market is caught between a global shortage of rapeseed and an above-average supply of soybeans. Palm oil production is lagging behind the growth rates of previous years, while at the same time a higher crude oil price is making it very attractive to use vegetable oils for biodiesel production. Palm oil prices are expected to trend upwards on the Dalian Stock Exchange.
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