After the setbacks of the week, rapeseed headed north again in the last full week of April. Yesterday's closing price in the most traded August contract was 458.00 euros/t. Rapeseed was able to benefit from friendly indications from the soybean market. Palm oil was also able to regain ground this week after significant losses in the previous week. The geopolitical situation, particularly in Ukraine following the recent attacks on infrastructure facilities at export ports and the damage to grain silos, is providing an additional tailwind for prices. Producers are generally satisfied with the development of the rapeseed plants for the coming harvest. However, the cold temperatures and the risk of frosty nights in some regions are raising concerns about frost damage. In the harvest estimate updated yesterday, the EU Commission assumes that the coming rapeseed harvest will be around 406,000 tons lower than in 2023/24. The production volume is estimated at 19.411 million tons. According to the preliminary harvest figures, 19.91 million tons were harvested from the fields in the previous year. As already forecast by the DRV, the Commission also expects a lower rapeseed harvest in Germany. The area under cultivation is down on the previous year, although it is still higher than the average of the last five years. There is still a shortage of rapeseed meal on the cash markets. Many mills will not be able to deliver again until May. Canadian canola also recorded a price increase. On Tuesday, the ICE saw the strongest daily increase since November 2023.
Soybean prices gained from the middle of the week, although slightly weaker price trends emerged again yesterday. Soybean meal gained over the week. The soybean market is currently dominated by the situation in South America. The harvest in Argentina is progressing very slowly. Currently, around 22% of stocks have been harvested. This means that the current harvest progress is 25 percentage points below the average value at this time. The condition ratings of the Argentinian fields remain constant. In Brazil, the harvest is progressing steadily. According to Ag Rural, 87 percent of the harvest is complete. However, soybean traders in Brazil are somewhat more cautious about export volumes for April than they were at the beginning of this month. Sowing has begun in the USA. At the beginning of the week, 12 percent of the areas had been sown, the same level as last year. While the growing regions in the Midwest are expected to remain warm and dry over the next few days, rainy days are forecast for the Corn Belt. Sowing will therefore be delayed here, but the plants should benefit significantly from the rainfall right at the start. The price of soybean meal is trending upwards on the cash markets in Germany.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The soybean harvest in South America could already be on target if it weren't for the slow progress in Argentina. In the USA, farmers are planting their areas for the coming harvest. Weather news is therefore likely to play an increasingly important role. Overall, there are still signs of an unchanged movement in oilseed prices, although this is likely to be characterized by individual days of high volatility.
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