The soybean market showed a turnaround on Thursday. The beans' early gains were given up again and the contracts closed trading down 1 to 4 cents. Soybean meal and soybean oil were also unable to turn the tide and ended trading in the red. President Trump announced that he would impose additional tariffs of 10% on China from next week. As with grain, many traders and market participants fear that business could slump significantly. At the same time, concerns about countermeasures are growing. The latest US export data was also published yesterday. Last week, 410,878 tons of soybeans were sold for the 2024/25 trading year, down 14.4% on the previous week, but still well above the previous year's level. The largest buyer was China with 202,200 tons, followed by Egypt with 172,500 tons. At 3,620 tons, sales of the new harvest were at the lower end of the estimates of 0 to 50,000 tons. Soybean meal sales were only 176,472 tons, also below the expected range of 200,000 to 525,000 tons. At 18,363 tons, bookings for bean oil were in the middle of the estimates of 0 to 30,000 tons. Yesterday, in addition to the political news, the USDA report took center stage. The USDA Outlook Forum presented the Office of the Chief Economist's estimates that about 84 million acres of soybeans will be planted next spring, which is slightly below the average of analysts' estimates. The expected final soybean stocks for 2025/26 are 320 million bushels, which is slightly below market expectations. Canola prices on the ICE in Winnipeg came under pressure and fell by Can-$ 6.30 to Can-$ 658.10/t. Although trading started positively at first, the influence of weaker competitor markets led to losses. The losses were curbed by the solid processing figures. According to Statistics Canada, around 1 million tons of canola were processed in January, 8% more than in the same month last year. In contrast, rapeseed contracts on Euronext in Paris rose. The May contract rose by €6.50 to €538.00/t and was thus able to break away from the weak market conditions.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The latest developments on the soybean market continue to point to volatile prices. The additional tariffs announced by President Trump could put further pressure on exports and lead to countermeasures. Despite stable demand and positive export figures, uncertainty among market participants remains high. USDA estimates show a slight decrease in acreage and ending stocks, which in turn could keep losses in check. In addition, weaker competitor markets are having a negative impact on prices and could therefore exert further pressure.
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