The preliminary harvest report published by the German Federal Ministry of Agriculture (BMEL) on 29 Aug. 24 confirms the expected unfavorable results of the German rapeseed harvest. Production is estimated at 3.61 million tons, which is -14.3% below the previous year. This is due in equal measure to the weather-related reduction in acreage of -7.3% and the national average yield loss of -7.6%.
Particularly low harvests were recorded in Schleswig-Holstein (-29.2 %), Thuringia (-21 %), Saxony (-20.9 %), Lower Saxony (-22.7 %) and North Rhine-Westphalia (-18.1 %). In most cases, reduced acreage as a result of unfavorable weather conditions during the sowing period played a decisive role. In Schleswig-Holstein, Saxony, Thuringia and Lower Saxony, yield reductions exacerbated the result. Positive rapeseed harvests were only achieved in Rhineland-Palatinate and Hesse.
At 461 €/t for Nov.-24, rapeseed prices on the Paris exchange are once again above the 450 €/t line after only a brief period of weakness. However, no significant increases can be observed for the following delivery dates.
Canola prices on the Canadian stock exchange in Winnipeg have fallen back to the equivalent of € 400/t. The most recent harvest estimate showed a good result of 19.5 million tons. In contrast to the import-dependent EU, Canada is the world's largest rapeseed exporter, accounting for around 45% of production. The current price weakness is also a consequence of the strike on the railroads, the most important means of land transportation to the export ports.
Palm oil prices continued to rise towards €830/t last week and set the tone as the market leader in the vegetable oil sector.
Soybean prices in the USA have recovered after a strong downward phase due to high harvest expectations. Prices are being supported by unexpectedly high US sales contracts. However, soybean supplies are still expected to be above average this year.
After a brief interim high, crude oil prices (Brent) have fallen back to the starting level of 78.2 $/bb. The decline has dampened prices for vegetable oil-based raw materials for biodiesel production.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
After a period of price decline, the most recent prices are showing a clear stabilization and even slight upward tendencies in some areas. The global rapeseed market, which is in short supply, is being supported by rising palm oil prices. Soybeans are benefiting from the latest US export deals. Nevertheless, soybean supplies remain above average.
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