31.
01.25
Soy in red territory - US export figures disappoint

Oilseeds News, 31.01.2025

Bullish
  • Uncertainty weather southern hemisphere
  • Yield forecasts and condition assessment Argentina
Bearish
  • Weak US export figures
  • Possible retaliatory measures from Canada and Mexico in response to Trump's tariff plans
  • Weak US export figures

Soybeans recorded losses of 10 to 17 cents on Thursday. Many traders secured their profits ahead of the end of the month. In addition, Trump's announcement dampened sentiment. Late on Thursday afternoon, the US President announced that he would impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada on Saturday. Officially, no retaliatory measures have yet been announced by either country. Nothing was said about China, although the President stated that this country would also end up paying a tariff. USDA data on export sales showed that only 438,002 metric tons of soybeans were booked for 2024/25 in the week ending Jan. 23, below the estimated range of 0.45 million to 1.7 million metric tons. This was a three-week low and a 70.6% drop from the previous week, but still significantly more than the same week last year. China was the buyer of only 145,300 tons, while Spain bought 66,300 tons. Another small quantity of 4,520 tons was reported for 2025/26, all destined for Japan. Sales of meal were at the upper end of the expected volume at 410,300 tons. The volumes sold for soybean oil were also in line with expectations at 12,452 tons. The latest news from Brazil has also caused uncertainty on the market in recent days. In Paraná, soybean meal exports were found to be heavily contaminated, with a total of 51 truckloads of oilseed contaminated with high levels of sand. It is not yet clear to whom the goods were destined. The EU is the largest importer from this region. The news from China a few days ago also dampened the buying mood. China, Brazil's most important soy buyer, had temporarily halted imports from five suppliers because hygiene standards were not being met.

Euronext was not uniform shortly before the weekend. While the front month, which was coming to an end, fell significantly, the back months were unable to find a clear direction. The following May contract gained slightly, while the following dates recorded both marginal losses and gains.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

Trump continues to keep the agricultural markets on their toes. Many market participants did not expect the tariffs to be introduced quickly, so many players are currently taking a wait-and-see approach and acting cautiously. Bearish impulses also came primarily from the export front and, in addition to the political news, are also causing a subdued mood.

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