Rapeseed was somewhat weaker this week. While 490.50 euros/t were still on the scoreboard in Paris last Friday for the front month of August 2024, it was 485.50 euros/t at the closing bell yesterday evening. At the start of the trading day, however, slightly firmer trends are emerging again.
The EU Commission has adjusted the European production forecast downwards. A rapeseed harvest of 19.089 million tons is now expected, compared to 19.721 million tons in the previous year. However, the average of the last five years will be exceeded by 7.40 percent despite the reduced harvest forecast. Overall, the oilseed harvest in Europe is expected to be higher than in the previous year. The cultivation of soybeans has increased, as has that of sunflowers, and the linseed area has also grown compared to the previous year and the average of recent years. Meanwhile, the cash markets remain quiet. There are reports of rapid sowing progress in Canada, which is weighing on canola prices there. In addition, lower processing volumes of canola are being reported in Canada, as the statistics office published fresh figures yesterday. Rapeseed prices may also benefit from the export tariffs imposed on Russian agricultural goods. Oilseeds and grain from Belarus are also affected. Rapeseed meal in particular was still imported to Europe in large quantities from both countries.
The soybean market only started the new trading week on Tuesday due to a public holiday. The overall trend was southwards for soybeans and soybean meal. The weather outlook has improved significantly in the United States, with the previous week's heavy rainfall significantly increasing soil moisture in many growing regions. Sowing has also made good progress overall despite the bad weather front. Currently, 66 percent of the targeted areas have been sown. This also exceeds the average of the last five years of 63%, but falls well short of the previous year. Soybean exports are at a low level. In the week ending May 23, only 20,000 tons more were registered than in the previous week. 212,105 tons were loaded. Due to the public holiday on Monday, export sales will not be reported until this Friday.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The wave of purchases from China has not yet been confirmed. Sowing is also progressing well and with lower domestic demand in the US, soybean prices currently have little potential for a further price rally. On the other hand, the latest rapeseed production forecasts for Europe and the announced tariffs against Russia and Belarus are clearly having an impact on trading.
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