Oilseeds News, 3rd / Apr / 2024

Rapeseed has a positive start to the shortened trading week. Yesterday it rose by 7.75 euros in the front month of May to 445.75 euros/t and today there are also positive trends until the afternoon. At 4:45 p.m., rapeseed in the May contract was trading at 450.25 euros per ton. In particular, rising prices for crude oil but also for palm oil are providing a tailwind for European rapeseed. Canola in Winnipeg also benefited from this at the start of the week. In addition, good recent export figures and higher expectations for the coming weeks in terms of export demand are supporting price expectations. On the local cash markets, trade in rapeseed and rapeseed meal remains manageable, even because of the holidays. In the forecast for 2024, the EU Commission assumes a harvest of over 19.46 million tonnes of rapeseed in Europe. This is slightly less than last year, when, according to preliminary figures, 19.81 million tons of rapeseed were harvested. The long-term average is 17.77 million tons and, if the forecast is correct, this will be exceeded by 9.53 percent. The slightly lower forecast compared to the previous year is due to a smaller acreage for oilseeds. For Germany, the Commission assumes a cultivated area of 1.115 million. Hectares, here too there is a decline compared to the previous year. The German harvest is estimated at 4.06 million tons after 4.23 million tons in the previous year. This exceeds the average of the last five years by 8.06 percent. Soybeans were unable to benefit from the movement in crude oil and started the new week in the red. In today's trading session, the beans are only marginally firmer. Soybean meal is declining significantly again today. February soy processing figures released by the USDA yesterday showed, as expected, a decline from January volumes. Nevertheless, significantly more beans were processed than in February of the previous year. The consulting and brokerage firm StoneX yesterday reduced its forecast for the harvest in Brazil by 500,000 tons to 150.8 million tons. The harvest in Brazil is still going at full speed, but the pace has slowed recently and the harvest is currently less advanced than last year. Demand for soybeans from the USA has been weak recently. The figures published on Monday were disappointing and continued to weigh on trading in the following days. In addition, the cultivation forecast for the USA has been adjusted downwards, but is still around 1.9 million. Hectares of higher-valued acreage are weighing on the market overall. Initial crop estimates for the United States are expected with the publication of the May WASDE.