Bulls prevailed in US soybean trading until just before the afternoon, but were unable to sustain the rally until the end of trading. The USDA export report recorded a total of 1.44 million tons of soybeans sold in the week of 9/26-24, which was a 3-week low, but still 78.5% more than the same week last year. This was at the high end of trade estimates of 1 to 1.6 million tons of bookings for 2024/25. China was the top buyer at 725,700 tons, followed by Bangladesh at 166,000 tons. Soybean meal sales were recorded at 40,720 tons for 2023/24 sales and 228,563 tons for 2024/25.
Rapeseed prices on Euronext were unable to maintain their gains at the start of the week and fell again. The new figures from the EU Commission were also unable to halt the price decline. The Commission estimates the EU rapeseed harvest at 17.2 million tons, which is 13% less than in the previous year. Soybean production in Europe could reach a record level of 12.5 million tons in 2024, which corresponds to an increase of 3.7% compared to 2023. This is mainly due to a 13.4% increase in acreage. In the EU-27, only a slight increase of 0.3% is forecast despite an 8% increase in area. In Ukraine, record production of over 5.0 million tons is expected, which is 35% above the 5-year average. Soybean yields suffered from heat and drought in the summer of 2024, particularly in the Balkans. In mid-September, non-GM soybeans were traded in the EU at €450 to €460/t.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
Harvest pressure and weather forecasts are currently in the spotlight, as they are for grain. Bullish impulses are mainly coming from the continuing demand, but with a good harvest and the rapid progress of the work, the bears could prevail again. Accordingly, the market remains volatile.
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