While there were signs of an upward trend in rapeseed in the week before Easter, this week it has moved slightly southwards. At the start of the short trading week, oilseeds rose in Paris, but recorded a significant price drop in late trading yesterday, in particular. On Thursday, the front month of May closed at a closing price of EUR 436.00/t, EUR 12.25 lower than Wednesday's price. Compared to the closing bell on Maundy Thursday, the May contract lost EUR 2 per ton. Overall, the supply of oilseeds in Europe is viewed positively, which is putting pressure on prices. The recent higher prices have prompted farmers to sell stored goods from the last harvest and to increasingly conclude contracts for the coming harvest. Stocks at local producers are estimated to be low overall. In the first harvest estimate for the coming harvest, the EU Commission expects a production of 19.46 million tonnes of rapeseed in Europe. Last year's figures are provisionally at 19.81 million tonnes. Nevertheless, the rapeseed harvest is higher than the average of the last five years. For Germany, the Commission expects an increase of around 180.000 tonnes.,000 tonnes lower rapeseed harvest of 4.06 million tonnes. This is mainly due to a smaller area under cultivation compared with the previous year. In France, however, initial estimates show that the area under rapeseed has increased. A harvest of 4.52 million tonnes is expected here; last year French farmers harvested 4.26 million tonnes. In Canada, weather conditions are mostly good, but the eastern prairies are experiencing drought. Export demand supported canola around Easter. Canadian market participants are also optimistic about export demand for the coming weeks. Soybeans have been heading slightly south since Monday. Yesterday there were also red signs for beans, while soybean meal increased slightly. The fundamental news situation is currently focusing primarily on the harvest in Brazil. The soybean harvest has recently lost some momentum, but the ongoing harvest means that there are still enough beans available for export. StoneX has meanwhile revised its harvest forecast for Brazil slightly downwards this week and is expecting a production of 150.8 million tonnes. Recent weak export figures are also having a negative impact on US soybeans. The news of an export sale to Mexico yesterday could not change this. In addition, last week's crop area forecasts are still having an impact. On Maundy Thursday, the USDA estimated the soybean cultivation area at 35 million hectares, 1.2 million hectares higher than in 2023. This is the first official crop area estimate by the USDA. At the AG Outlook Forum in February, the USDA had unofficially expected the area to be slightly higher. Soybean cultivation is benefiting from a higher demand for soybean oil for the increasing biodiesel production in the United States. The news that several herds of cattle in the state of Texas have been found to be infected with bird flu is causing uncertainty. This is a cause for concern with regard to further domestic demand for soybean meal for cattle feed.
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