Ölsaaten Cockpit, 11.11.2016

Despite record U.S. soybean crop and falling crude oil prices drag on oilseed prices The latest USDA market report estimates the U.S. soy crop to 118.6 million tonnes again higher than in the previous month. Increased harvest areas and especially record yields contributed to this unique result. In the previous year , reaching good 106 Mt. One would have given an again fallen crude oil price $45 depending on the barrel can expect that soybean prices under the pressure drop will clear. But the result had indicated long time itself, so that the stock prices already have sufficient anticipated price development . Now find other factors soy prices on. Is 1. Line to call the current U.S. export sales in high gear. The weekly export quantities exceed all previous averages. Largest customer remains China. Supportive inflation also comes from the rising palm oil prices. Contrary to all expectations, that in Oct. and Nov. the highest production levels in the course of one year should be reached, leave at least the Malaysian results far short of expectations. When exports are rising at the same time, little remains for the necessary collection development in this time of year. However, the Indonesian results are cheaper, where transparency in this part of the market is not very large. Both countries deny almost 90% of world palm oil production. For the disappointing palm oil production in Malaysia, not only the effects of the El Niño drought be held responsible last year, but it is performed also the shortage of workers in the field. This involves the problem of illegal workers, their registration and possible expulsion is required. Rising palm oil prices provide the rapeseed prices strong updraft. If even the purchasing power of the euro exchange rate falls, the necessary EU rapeseed imports are more expensive. After the rare courses on the Paris stock exchange ever brand have sniffed at 400 €/ t, a restart should now start to cross the magic boundary. Given of a continued weak crude oil price about $45 per barrel, is a further price rise but difficult. In addition, the forecasts predict a high Brazilian harvest in the Feb 2017 which will more than offset the expected decline in Argentina's. In another perspective, is predicting a rising US acreage for soybeans at the expense of maize due to the favorable Soy / corn price ratio . A possibly even greater U.S. crop was imminent in the autumn of 2017. One faces the expected weak EU rapeseed harvest as a result of reduced acreage. However, the market weight is of rape to soy substantially less.