22.
12.16
High rape rates - moderate soy meal prices

Ölsaaten Cockpit, 22.12.2016

Bullish
  • increased MPL for the Rolölkurs
  • scarce supply in the palm oil sector
  • scarce supply in the rape field
  • for the time being still high demand from China
  • Exchange rates
Bearish
  • Bumper crop for US soybeans
  • high harvest expectations in South America

Rape and palm oil courses at higher level - soy on Seitwärtspfaden The different layers of the supply between the two market leaders in the field of oilseed palm oil and Soy has led to accordingly different price developments during the course of the first half year 2016/17. The palm oil production has considerably suffered from the aftermath of the El Niño drought. In the seasonal high point was making about 20% missed compared to previous years. The usual inventories is not have been Furthermore, so that hardly any significant compensation can take place in the upcoming seasonally declining production phase. The higher palm oil prices have been pulled in addition since the end of Nov. 16 from the high crude oil prices upwards. Crude oil and palm oil prices have a leading function for the rapeseed quotes. On the Paris stock exchange was mid-Nov. 16 the brand sustainably breached €400 / t, the line has not quite reached €420 / t. A supportive effect comes from the euro rate side, falling purchasing power of European currency because the necessary EU rapeseed imports more expensive be. In Canada are canola prices initially come with, will be but the neighborly competition from the U.S. soy sector capped.   The global canola market remains still just supplied despite good Canadian harvest. Therefore each opportunity that comes up way is perceived, the courses up to the limits of the other competing oil products to take advantage of. The record U.S. crop in soy and the high expectations of the soybean crops in South America in the spring 2017 contribute to above-average prospects of supply trends in this sector. Taking a low oil content, the importance of Ölwertes in the soy bean of less is strongly expressed. The so far strong import demand from China holds the soy prices on slightly raised level. Yet the price increases as a result of the purchasing power of the euro is for European imports. The high South American soybean crops should actually occur, increasing price pressure will be expected in the first months of the year 2017. Then the price of canola is can not escape the.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

Higher canola prices are owed the increased crude oil and palm oil prices as well as the tight supply situation in the canola sector. Moderate soy meal prices are causing the U.S. record crop and high expectations for crops in Brazil and Argentina for the coming months of the year 2017. The weak euro exchange rate, however, increased soybean imports to a certain extent.

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