Ölsaaten Cockpit, 24.08.2018

IGC raises global soybean harvest in 2018/19 to the previous month 's estimate The International Grains Council in its August estimate, the global soybean harvest has increased again compared to the previous month. The world harvest 2018/19 is estimated at 366 million tonnes. Global consumption is expected to be 357 million tonnes. This results in an inventory increase of approx. 8 million t. Rising inventories signal a well-supplied market. The US remains the world's largest producer with an expected 124.8 million tonnes of soybean harvest in the fall. Extended acreage and increasing area yields are the crucial foundations for the result.The favorable stock assessments in the US and the continued growth-friendly weather underline the assessment of a record harvest. For Brazil , the IGC estimates a soybean production of 121 million t in the spring of 2019 . This once again surpasses the highest result of previous years. In the export should approx. 75 million t. This makes Brazil the world's largest exporting country. The IGC estimates the Argentine soybean harvest in the first part of next year at a modest 54 million t . The last USDA estimate was still 57 million tonnes. Argentina mainly exports soybean meal and soybean oil.In China , 15.4 million t of soybeans are to be harvested. Due to the trade conflict with the US, the IGC reduces soybean imports to 95.5 million tonnes. Originally one had expected over 100 million t. In the previous year, approx. 45% of US imports and approx. 40% were imported from Brazil. The further development of trade relations between the USA and China will determine prices for the soybean market and will also affect the rest of the oilseeds market. Initial attempts at new negotiations have been broken off without result. The situation is precarious for both sides .In the absence of other suppliers with similar potential, China will have to resort to US offerings at the turn of the year. The US, on the other hand, can not find an adequate buyer of its large soya bean, which is entering the market from Oct. On the Chicago Stock Exchange , the soybean prices have dropped significantly after the termination of the negotiations. The specifications from America also affect falling rapeseed courses in Paris. The Canadian Canola price has fallen below the critical mark of 500 Can $ / t again. Palm oil prices are under pressure due to rising production supply , but are helped by rising crude oil prices.