Ölsaaten News, 01/12/2024

Rapeseed trended weaker this week. This Friday, the February contract fell by 7 euros to a closing price of 419.25 euros/t. Rapeseed also went south on the cash markets. Rapeseed meal also continues to trend weaker. Rapeseed oil prices are also trending lower. Trading on the actual markets remains low. Rapeseed imports are still below the previous year's level. Increased deliveries from Down Under are expected from March. In today's WASDE, the USDA increased the global production volume again and now expects a harvest volume of 87.103 million tons. Although this is still less than in the previous year, it is still more than was expected in December. The European agricultural trade association Coceral expects a rapeseed harvest in 2024 that will be 250,000 tons lower than in 2023. The smaller cultivated area in particular is cited as the reason. The preliminary data from the Federal Statistical Office had also predicted a decline in the cultivated area in Germany. Soya was under selling pressure this week, primarily due to the better weather forecast for Brazil.Due to the drought and drought in many parts of the country at the start of South American sowing, several analysts had already lowered their expectations for the Brazilian harvest, including the agricultural authority Conab. In its January WASDE today, the USDA significantly reduced the harvest forecast for Brazil from 161 million tons to 157 million tons. However, the forecast for Argentina was raised as expected. The USDA now expects 50 million tonnes (+2 million tonnes). Global production has only increased slightly. Global final stocks are expected to be around 14 million tons higher than previously. US exports were also disappointing this week and were well below market expectations. The declining soybean meal prices since mid-December are slowly having an impact on the local cash markets. Prices have recently fallen at the wholesale level and at the rural trade level.