Ölsaaten News, 01/27/2023

Looking at the past week, the signs for rapeseed at the Euronext/Matif have changed significantly. On a weekly basis, oilseed was even able to increase by 4.50 euros/t, because yesterday, Thursday in particular, there was a significant trading plus of 15.25 euros/t in the most traded corn contract on the display board of the Paris-based stock exchange. Canola has also been a little firmer lately. The rapeseed market was influenced on Wednesday by the promises made by many NATO countries to deliver battle tanks to Ukraine. This brought concerns about a further escalation and restrictions on Ukrainian agricultural exports back to the fore. In addition, the vegetable oil markets recovered overall and thus also provided rapeseed with corresponding backing. Canada's statistics agency CanStat estimates that this year's canola harvest in the North American country is likely to be larger than last year. A harvest of 19.4 million is expected, which would be 200,000 tons more than in the previous year. The area under cultivation has increased by 100,000 hectares to 8.8 million hectares.Many had expected an even larger acreage, but the high prices for wheat and peas are causing competition in cultivation planning. Most recently, two weeks ago, the International Grain Council estimated this year's harvest to be lower than last year's. For Europe, however, the acreage should increase after the IGC. This is also supported by the published acreage estimates of the Federal Ministry of Agriculture. Little has changed on the cash markets, according to the development on the stock exchange, rapeseed prices are volatile everywhere in Germany. The soy complex was also able to increase on a weekly basis. While soybeans were still impressed by Argentina's rains earlier in the week, positive guidance from grain markets and solid export numbers supported the market overall. Technical purchases and bargain hunters also ensured attractive prices, especially on Wednesday. So it went north on both Wednesday and yesterday in double digits. Last week, according to USDA figures, 1.27 milliontons of soybeans sold, and on Wednesday the ministry also reported a retail sale to a buyer of unknown origin for 130,000 tons. Overall, the export news provides support for the oilseeds and puts the rain showers in Argentina in the background. It has rained heavily there this week and weather exports are also expecting precipitation for the coming week, so that the yield prospects for soybean production there have improved significantly. In addition to soybeans, the price of soybean meal was also able to stabilize again. Yesterday, soybean meal rose by 11.60 US dollars per short ton in the March date and thus climbed to a converted price of 482.11 euros/t. On a weekly basis, however, soybean meal is slightly lower. Soybeans have also been supported recently by higher crude oil prices.