Ölsaaten News, 02/02/2024

Rapeseed was again under pressure this week, even though prices showed more positive trends, especially in the middle of the week. Yesterday evening, the new front month of May 24 closed at a closing price of 422.50 euros/t, on Friday of the previous week it was still 432.00 euros/t on the display board of the Paris stock exchange. Canola was also traded significantly weaker on the ICE in Canada on a weekly basis. The International Grain Council predicts a significant global area decline of 1.5 percent for next season's harvest compared to this year's harvest. In Ukraine in particular, the area under cultivation is expected to be significantly lower. Compared to 2023, the cultivated area is expected to be 22.5 percent smaller. An area of 42.4 million hectares is expected in Europe, which is around 2.7 percent than a year ago. The prices for rapeseed are also declining on the local cash markets. This means that oil mills are becoming more active on the market again and are stocking up on new contracts. Overall, however, agriculture's willingness to donate is still limited. The situation in Canada is different. Due to the recent significant decline in prices there, farmers are increasingly offering their stocks and increasing the price development with a large supply. At currently 3.15 million tonnes, Europe's rapeseed imports are still well below the level of 2022/23, when 4.52 million tonnes were already imported into the EU-27. Imports of sunflowers, on the other hand, are declining sharply. However, rapeseed meal and sunflower meal were imported into the international community in slightly larger quantities compared to the previous year. The most important supplier is and remains Ukraine, which has so far provided around 2/3 of total imports. Australia's harvest is expected in Europe's ports from the end of March, but deliveries are likely to be expensive due to the uncertain situation on the Red Sea. The soy market was volatile this week, temporarily falling to a two-year low in the front month of March, but was able to recover from this and close slightly higher for the week. Soybeans have recently been supported by doubts about the size of the Brazilian soy harvest. This is making good progress, the farmers are well ahead of last year's pace. Most recently, the private analysis house AgResource lowered its forecast for Brazil by more than 5 million. tons to 145.4 million tons. The weather conditions have improved overall in South America, but since the maturity of the soybean plants is well advanced, it is no longer expected that the plants will benefit sustainably from the current rainfall. Soy processing figures released yesterday failed to support the market and were slightly below market expectations. Soy exports disappointed across the board and were well below the previous week's level. The ongoing harvest in Brazil means that the South American country is able to export on a large scale earlier than usual. Falling crude oil prices are an additional burden. After the long downward trend this week, soybean meal was able to gain value again and only showed red signs yesterday, Thursday. This is also noticeable on the cash markets in Germany. Although prices have recently fallen here too, they have increased slightly again in the last few days. At the wholesale level in Hamburg, prices increased by 5 euros per ton compared to the previous week.