Rapeseed is trading with slight losses on a weekly basis, but has sometimes been very volatile on individual trading days. At the closing bell last night, a price of 412.50 euros/t was on the Euronext/Matif display board in Paris. On Friday of last week it was still 416.00 euros per ton in the front month of May 24. Prices are also lower on the cash markets. Oil mills had recently become more active due to the lower price level. However, at the current price level, producers are showing little willingness to sell and are often waiting to see further developments. Ukraine's good export ability also puts pressure on the rapeseed market, although European imports are significantly lower than in the previous year. With a view to the coming harvest, market participants are still undecided. Overall, the stocks got through the winter well almost everywhere. However, damage caused by flooding around Christmas cannot yet be estimated in many cases. The latest estimates assume that between 3.9 and 4 million tons of rapeseed could be harvested in Germany in the summer. The analysis house Strategie Grains recently reduced its harvest expectations for Europe and predicted a seven percent lower harvest compared to the previous year. The French analysis house puts the coming harvest at 18.4 million tons. In the WASDE report on Thursday, the USDA only slightly increased rapeseed forecasts at a global level. Analysts at the US Department of Agriculture expect a higher rapeseed harvest in India in particular, while no adjustments have been made for Europe and Canada. At the same time as the USDA, the Canadian Statistics Authority also published fresh figures on inventories yesterday. As of December 31, 2023, canola stocks in Canada stood at 12.85 million tonnes, 1.3 percent higher than at the same time last year. WASDE was also at the center of trading activity in the soybean market. After the beans hit multi-year lows late last week, many investors are taking the opportunity to build new positions. The fundamental focus was primarily on Brazil. In the run-up to yesterday's WASDE, there were certainly high expectations for the correction of the soybean harvest forecast for the South American country. This does not occur in WASDE. The USDA only reduced the soybean harvest by 1 million tons and expects the Brazilian harvest to be 156 million tons. On the other hand, the suspected increases in the harvest in Argentina were not an issue in the WASDE report. The USDA still expects 50 million tons of Argentine soy production. There was little adjustment at the global level, but global ending stocks are valued higher due to higher carryovers from the previous season. The fact that soy was still able to increase yesterday is also due to friendly US export figures. In addition, the Brazilian agricultural authority Conab also issued new forecasts for the soybean harvest yesterday and is much more pessimistic than the USDA. Conab estimates the harvest volume at 149.4 million tons and has thus reduced its previous forecast by 5.9 million tons.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
Soya has recently been able to make up some ground again. However, the USDA's soybean forecast, which is still significantly higher than last year, and better weather prospects for Argentina are putting oilseeds under price pressure. The same applies to rapeseed. The global supply situation is better than expected last year. Ukraine's surprisingly good ability to deliver is a burden. Oilseed prices tend to remain under pressure and are unlikely to lose any of their volatility.
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