Soybean trading was under significant downward pressure in the last week of the year. Futures already fell noticeably at the start of the week, weighed down by weak weekly export data from the USDA. At around 750,000 tons, exports were well below the previous year's level, reflecting the persistently sluggish foreign demand. Although China was once again the largest buyer, the volume of purchases there was not sufficient to make up for the massive shortfall compared to the previous season. A USDA report on sales to Egypt also quickly fizzled out. New export reports to China and unknown destinations followed in the middle of the week, but even this news hardly provided any positive impetus. Instead, prices recently came under further pressure after export sales of just 1.06 million tons once again fell well short of expectations. Weak trading interest around the turn of the year reinforced the bearish mood. Soybean meal and soybean oil also showed a mixed to weaker trend, although firm crude oil prices provided temporary support.
The canola market in Winnipeg presented a mixed picture. After initial losses, there was a brief recovery which, according to market participants, was due to speculative buying. However, this movement was not sustainable and losses again predominated. On Euronext, on the other hand, rapeseed was slightly firmer throughout, but hardly benefited from global developments.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
The development of the soybean markets at the end of the year was clearly bearish. Weak export figures dominated events and cast a shadow over future demand. Even short-term buying impulses from China were unable to turn the market environment around. The canola market benefited briefly from speculative interest, but remains susceptible to setbacks in view of the good supply situation. Fresh export figures and weather developments in South America will be decisive. However, a sustained price recovery requires stronger fundamental impetus.
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