01.
03.24
Rapeseed meal is becoming scarce

Ölsaaten News, 03/01/2024

Bullish
  • lower harvest expectations in Europe
  • lower global rapeseed harvest expectations
  • reduced crop estimates for Brazil
Bearish
  • Ukraine's delivery capability
  • ongoing harvest Brazil
  • upcoming harvest Argentina
  • Expected soybean production in the USA in 2024/25

Compared to the closing price last week on Friday, rapeseed rose this week. Today too, there are positive signs for oilseeds until midday. Closing price yesterday in the front month of May was 412.00 euros/t. The daily high was 415.25 euros/t today. Yesterday, canola in Winnipeg was also able to increase in price and decouple itself from the weak specifications for soybeans. The situation on the local cash markets is calm. Oil mills ask here and there. In addition to some quantities from the producers' stocks, import quantities from Eastern Europe, the Baltics and Ukraine are also available. Ukraine remains the European Union's most important supplier of rapeseed. Overall, however, Europe's rapeseed imports have declined noticeably. Significantly less quantity comes from Australia in particular. The availability of rapeseed meal on the domestic cash markets has recently become scarce again. Some mills report that they will not be able to deliver again until mid-March. Rapeseed meal prices are correspondingly stable in some cases. Soya is trading almost unchanged for the week. Today, pre-market prices are firmer. Weak export figures in the USA are a burden. Last week it was just 159.700 tons of soy were booked for export and the estimates in advance were at the lower end. Harvesting work in Brazil continues at full speed and the country's exports remain at a high level. The consulting firm Abiove from Brazil has reduced its forecast for the current harvest by 2.3 million tons to 153.8 million tons. The soybean harvest has not yet started in Argentina. As the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange announced, expected rainfall will benefit stocks over the weekend. New assessments from the WASDE report will be available next week. The next WASDE report from the US Department of Agriculture is expected on March 8th.

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ZMP Live Expert Opinion

Bulls and bears have been alternating as usual recently. There is no clear direction for rapeseed and soy. The uncertainty factors are large, the availability is given.

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13.
02.26
17:25

Rapeseed / canola - stabilization despite global abundance of oilseeds The oilseed complex is characterized globally by high production volumes and rising ending stocks, particularly for soybeans in South America. At the same time, the IGC analysis signals rising oilseed production and higher global stocks overall, which structurally limits the…

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23.
12.25
12:53

Rapeseed Weekly market development Global: USDA and other forecasts show rising global rapeseed production (including Australia, Canada, Russia) and higher ending stocks. EU context: Sufficient oilseed supply overall; no bottleneck signals. Trend: EU & global: stable to slightly bearish 2-4 week outlook: Sideways, with slight downside risk as…

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10.
12.25
18:53

Rapeseed /Canola & Oilseeds The WASDE report raises rapeseed production globally, including in the EU and Ukraine. However, market reports recently show a decline in oilseed futures partly due to oversupply (e.g. good canola harvests in Australia). Ukrainian export quotations for rapeseed are under pressure, influenced by weak demand and…

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