The soybean market was volatile in the past week. After a friendly start to the week, buoyed by hopes of diplomatic rapprochement between China and the US, disillusionment set in towards the middle of the week. Speculative expectations of early Chinese soybean bookings remained unfulfilled, which, in combination with weaker export momentum and declining stock valuations, led to price losses on the Chicago Stock Exchange. The downgrading of US stocks to 65% "good/excellent" reported by the USDA caused some surprise in the middle of the week. However, prices only recovered slightly towards the end of the week. Despite China's reticence, US exports are showing solid growth in the current season. The positive export figures for soybean meal had a supportive effect. A new monthly record of 1.4 million tons was reported in July.
New fundamental data dominated sentiment on the canola market. The significantly upwardly revised Canadian harvest estimate led to sustained selling pressure on the ICE in Winnipeg. In the meantime, this was exacerbated by technical sell signals and falling crude oil prices, which weighed on the entire vegetable oil sector. The only ray of hope was the hesitant harvest progress in parts of Canada, which provided stabilization for canola, at least in the short term. European rapeseed also showed a predominantly weak trend, despite slightly bullish impulses from international oilseed trading.
ZMP Live Expert Opinion
Expectations of an imminent resumption of Chinese soybean bookings from the US have not yet been fulfilled. In an environment without clear signals from Beijing, the market remains vulnerable to setbacks. The assessment of US soybean stocks points to increasing pressure from weather stress, which could limit supply in the medium term. For canola, on the other hand, the mood remains clearly bearish. The significantly higher harvest estimates in Canada and Australia are meeting with only moderate demand and continue to weigh on prices. In Europe, the weakness in rapeseed could persist as long as there is no new impetus from the international vegetable oil market or the currency environment. The export strength of meal remains a stabilizing factor.
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