Ölsaaten News, 06/09/2023

Rapeseed climbed sustainably above the 400 euro mark again this week. Last Thursday in the front month the price was still 399.75 euros/t on the display board of the Paris stock exchange. Yesterday it was 426.75 euros and thus 27 euros more than a week ago. Similar to the grain markets, the tense mood in Ukraine and around the Ukrainian grain corridor played a role in the price development. The rupture of the dam and an explosion that destroyed a key Russian ammonia pipeline significantly diminished hopes of a further extension of the safe trade route across the Black Sea. In addition, due to the drought, the growing conditions in the Canadian prairies have deteriorated this week and hardly any rain showers are forecast for the coming days. In addition, severe forest fires are currently raging in southern Canada, with smoke reaching as far as New York City. At 7.14 million tons, European imports are around 2 million tons above the level of the previous year. Australia is the most important rapeseed supplier this marketing year, followed by Ukraine. The largest consumer within the EU is Belgium, but the Netherlands and Germany also have quantities of over 1 million.tons imported from third countries. Farmers continue to be satisfied with the current development of rapeseed, although it has recently been very dry in France and in large parts of Germany and disease pressure is increasing in the stocks. At the end of last week, the EU Commission increased its rapeseed harvest forecast for the coming week and is now expecting production in the coming marketing year of 20.22 million tons. In addition to higher production, lower consumption is also expected, particularly for biofuel production. Based on the Commission's figures, the import requirement for the coming marketing year is estimated at 5.8 million tons, which is significantly lower than the current import figures suggest. The soybean market was volatile this week, but increased on a weekly basis. Both beans, soybean oil and soybean meal were able to increase in price at the CBoT. The weather conditions, especially in the Midwest, are currently dry, but rain is forecast again for some growing areas in the coming days. Right at the beginning of the new week, the USDA reduced the condition ratings for the stock currently already planted.Sowing is on target and is progressing better this year than the average for the past five years. On the export side, Chinese orders have provided support this week. Yesterday's export sales hit a five-week high for old crop beans. Nevertheless, the export bookings are at a relatively low level because the competition from Brazil is still very strong. This is also reflected in the Brazilian export figures for April, which were higher this year than in any other April month so far. In the year to date, Brazil has already been able to export around 17 percent more soy than in the same period last year. For today's WASDE, the market participants are anticipating a further reduction in the harvest result in Argentina to 25 million tons. On the other hand, the majority expects the soybean harvest in Brazil to remain unchanged at 155 million tons. Soybeans and soybean oil are up in premarket trading this Friday, while soybean meal has mixed signs into late morning.