Ölsaaten News, 06/16/2023

Rapeseed was able to increase significantly again this trading week. Last Friday the closing price in the front month of August was EUR 433.25 per tonne, but it was already EUR 445 per ton when the bell rang last night. With the start of trading today, prices are again firmer. In the front month of August, an increase of EUR 14.50 and a price of EUR 459.50/t were traded early on Friday afternoon. Today's peak has already reached 461.25 euros/t. Positive indications from the soy market have been supportive, as have increasing tensions in Ukraine. The European forecasting service MARS is expecting a record rapeseed harvest there, but if the export corridor via the Black Sea is not extended, this will only play a limited role for global supply. The drought in many European countries is also contributing to the price increase. The areas are particularly affected in France, but there has also been no precipitation in many regions in Germany since mid-May. Looking at Canada, hot and warm weather conditions are particularly evident in two of the three major agricultural provinces (Manitoba and Saskatchewan). In Alberta, on the other hand, the growing conditions are much friendlier.In a current estimate this week, the Australian agricultural authority ABARES estimated the harvest volume for the coming 2023/24 season at 4.9 million tons, which is significantly lower than the harvest work brought in in the current year. In the 2022/23 season that is now ending, a record harvest of 8.2 million tons was brought in. Australia is the largest supplier in the current marketing year for Europe. This, together with the difficult conditions in Ukraine and the prospects in Australia, also gives a boost to European listings. Despite the good harvest results and the price competition from Brazil, the CBoT prices for soybeans were able to ignite a veritable firework display from the middle of the week. In the front month of July it went northwards by 40 US cents/bu in the following month of August by as much as 50 US cents/bu. Soybeans posted double-digit gains in pre-market trading this Friday. The grain exchange in Rosario, Argentina, has forecast a domestic harvest of 205 million tons. At the beginning of the growing season, a harvest of 48 million tons was expected. In the USA itself, the drought also plays a major role.According to current estimates, 51 percent of US soybean acreage is threatened by drought. In the previous week it was still 37 percent and for the weekend temperatures well over 40 degrees were reported in parts, rain showers are likely to fall for a short time only in the southern and parts of the western growing areas around Lake Michigan. Last week's import sales were in line with expectations and caused little movement. Soybean meal and especially soybean oil have also increased recently.