Ölsaaten News, 06/23/2023

After the rise at the beginning of June, rapeseed prices turned around this week and fell significantly compared to the closing price last Friday. The front month of August closed yesterday Thursday at a price of 443.25. In today's trading trend, red signs are showing again for oilseed. Canola in Winnipeg has also been under increased pressure in recent days. In the Canadian provinces, the drought continues, but market observers assume that this has not had any lasting impact on the plants. Recently, 77 percent of the holdings were rated as good or very good. Although the drought in Central Europe between May and June has given rise to disease pressure, the majority of those involved in the market assume that the stocks are in good condition here too. Nonetheless, the lack of recent rainfall has led to corrections in harvest expectations. The EU forecast service MARS reduced the expected yields from 3.34 t/ha to 3.29 t/ha on average for Europe. An average rapeseed yield of 3.75 t/ha is expected for Germany.Although this is still well above the average yield of the last five years, it is around 5% below that of the previous year, when an average of 3.95 t/ha was harvested here. For France, the earnings forecast has also been revised downwards. In its fourth harvest estimate on Wednesday, the German Raiffeisen Association also cut yields and harvest volume. It is calculated that an average of 3.58 t/ha can be achieved on the cultivation area of 1.16 million hectares and the harvest will be 4.14 million tons. In May, the DRV had still expected a harvest at the previous year's level of 4.28 million tons. On the cash markets, the development on the Matif has not yet been followed at wholesale level. Here the prices in the various regions were above the level of last Thursday. Soybeans were able to gain significantly in value this week compared to the end of last week, although yesterday and in today's premarket trading again showed very significant losses. The recent decline in prices is largely due to technical selling and profit taking.But Tuesday's and Wednesday's rally is seen as overdone by some observers. In addition, US soy is still only competitive to a limited extent, as the huge harvest in Brazil is putting pressure on prices in the export business. The course fireworks at the beginning of the week were mainly triggered by the weather. The USDA on Tuesday downgraded stock condition ratings to a level not seen since 1996. Based on the current weather data, 57% of the stocks are also in drought stress and are threatened by drought. However, precipitation in some growing areas should ease the situation in the coming days. In addition, the skin ripening time of the beans is in August, so that there should still be some time left for the plants to develop. This insight prevailed in yesterday's trading in particular and fueled the selling pressure.